The NFL is a league constructed on and desirous of parity. Jets and Giants followers could have forgotten that, what with their groups having resided under the poverty line for so lengthy.
So far on this 2022 season, although, we’re seeing a brand new kind of parity, through which nearly every staff within the league in some way bought worse — out of the blue and all on the identical time — than 5-1 Big Blue and 4-2 Gang Green.
As I return from trip and thank Erich Richter for filling in final week, we begin by staying aboard these two native trains, which look to be on the categorical tracks to the postseason.
New York Jets (-1) over DENVER BRONCOS
Robert Saleh is “collecting receipts” and he’ll discover loads of them, however not so many right here because the Jets rewarded our Lock of the Week alternative with a 27-10 victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field.
The margin may have been greater, because the Jets left 4 factors on the desk on the finish and the zebras needed to price them one other 10 factors alongside the best way. What was extra stark than the rating, although, was the best way the Jets beat down the Packers’ offensive line (which nonetheless comprises high gamers equivalent to David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins) and put hit after hit on Aaron Rodgers.
Next up is a damaged Denver staff. Many are calling this a lure game, what with the Patriots coming to MetLife subsequent week. I don’t see that as an issue, as many of those Jets had been on the sphere final October when the Broncos hammered them, 26-0. And a handful extra will keep in mind the desultory 36-27 loss to backup QB Brett Rypien on a Thursday evening in New Jersey in 2020.
The Jets ought to be capable to proceed what they began in Green Bay, attacking Rypien (who will begin for the injured Russell Wilson), using the regal Breece Hall and mixing in some well-timed devices whereas not placing Zach Wilson at a lot danger. Special shout-out from one D.B. to a different: Duane Brown is a marvel who has solidified the Jets’ offensive line in two weeks. It’s wonderful to look at a 37-year-old, 330-pounder block defensive backs 20 yards downfield.
Some expect the Same Old Jets, however to me, meaning the identical as final week.
New York Giants (+3) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Giants don’t fairly have the expertise that the Jets do, however the teaching duo of Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale is about nearly as good because it will get. When higher-end gamers begin to arrive, we might be a Buffalo South or Kansas City East type of prolonged success.
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Those coaches look to me to be the important thing to a different W. They have an excellent deal with on the AFC competitors and have already got knocked off two of the convention’s high groups: Tennessee and Baltimore. They’ve tailored to accidents and located makes use of for all 53 gamers, even when we don’t know all of their names.
Detroit Lions (+7) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Even with Dak Prescott set to return for the Cowboys, I’m keen to take a shot with the Lions of their most popular betting position of enormous underdogs. Even factoring of their 29-0 loss at New England, the Lions nonetheless rank third in factors per game (28), whereas the Cowboys are twenty first at 18.3.
TENNESSEE TITANS (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Looking for slightly bounce from the Titans after their bye, as they’re 4-0 ATS underneath coach Mike Vrabel in such spots. Tough name, although, because the Colts expect Jonathan Taylor again after going 2-0 with out him.
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
Always cautious of a Bengals factors explosion, however hoping it doesn’t come this week, with each Ja’Marr Chase (hip) and Tee Higgins (ankle) showing on the midweek harm report. So monitor them. The Falcons are the one remaining undefeated staff in opposition to the unfold (6-0).
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Baltimore has been untrustworthy with a lead — see: losses to Miami, Buffalo and the Giants — so I’m not all in favour of giving nearly a landing to a division rival. The Browns have the offense to not less than slip within the backdoor.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Usually seize double-digit dwelling underdogs, however I can’t get behind a staff that’s already in fire-sale mode in October. Hoping Tom Brady pays slightly extra consideration to, you already know, this game as an alternative of Gisele or Kraft or no matter else which will have been distracting him.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+4.5) over Green Bay Packers
Figuring Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat discovered a number of issues from the Jets about find out how to get at Aaron Rodgers. Taylor Heinecke had an excellent game final year in Lambeau (268 yards passing, 95 yards speeding), although Washington tousled within the pink zone a number of occasions and lost, 24-10.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-7) over Houston Texans
This is a troublesome quantity to put as a result of the Raiders don’t should be favored by this a lot over anybody based mostly on efficiency so far. They did have the near-miss, 30-29 loss at Kansas City earlier than the bye, and Josh Jacobs is coming off video games of 144 and 154 speeding yards.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
Though it’s been an up-and-down season up to now for the 49ers, they’ve been wonderful of their two dwelling video games, beating the Seahawks, 27-7, and the Rams, 24-9. The Chiefs are again to their previous non-covering tips at 2-4 ATS.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Seahawks have proven flashes on offense (48 factors at Detroit, 32 at New Orleans) and protection (9 factors allowed final week vs. Arizona). Hoping they are often good on either side of the ball in the identical week. Schedule may produce a small edge, because the Chargers performed practically a full time beyond regulation Monday evening.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Was within the Dolphins till the road hit the important thing variety of seven. Now it’s tougher to cross up the famend underdog, Mike Tomlin. Thinking the Under, too, in a possible matchup of two quarterbacks getting back from concussions in Tua Tagovailoa and Kenny Pickett.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8) over Chicago Bears
Hate to play the large favourite in prime time, however I can’t sit there for three hours praying that the Bears’ prehistoric offense will rating in opposition to Bill Belichick’s protection. The Patriots shut out the Lions, who’ve an excellent offense, so I don’t maintain out a lot hope for Justin Fields right here.
Betting on the NFL?
Patriots, Jets, Giants.
Lock of the week
Patriots (Locks 4-2 in 2022).
9-5 total, 2-1 Best Bets.