GDP grew at revised 3.2% rate in third quarter

Shrugging off rampant inflation and rising rates of interest, the US economic system grew at an unexpectedly robust 3.2% annual tempo from July via September, the federal government reported Thursday in a wholesome improve from its earlier estimate of third-quarter progress.

The rise in gross home product — the economic system’s output in items and providers — marked a return to progress after consecutive drops in the January-March and April-June intervals.

Still, many economists count on the economic system to gradual and doubtless slip into recession subsequent year beneath the stress of upper rates of interest being engineered by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation that earlier this year reached heights not seen for the reason that early Eighties.

Driving the third-quarter progress had been robust exports and wholesome client spending.

Investment in housing plunged at an annual rate of 27.1%, hammered by larger mortgage charges arising from the Fed’s choice to lift its personal benchmark rate seven instances this year.

Thursday’s GDP report was the Commerce Department’s third and ultimate look at the July-September quarter. The first look at the fourth quarter comes out Jan. 26. Forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia count on the economic system to develop once more the final three months of the year — however at a slower, 1% annual rate.

In its earlier estimate of third-quarter progress, issued Nov. 30, the Commerce Department had pegged July-September progress at an annual rate of two.9%. Behind the improve to Thursday’s 3.2% was stronger progress in client spending, revised as much as a 2.3% annual rate from 1.7% in the November estimate.

“Despite a fast enhance in rates of interest, the economic system is rising and importantly, households are nonetheless spending,″ Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, mentioned in a analysis be aware. “However, wanting forward, in 2023, we count on a slower progress trajectory.″

Inflation, which had not been a major problem for 4 many years, returned in the spring of 2021. It was set off by an unexpectedly robust recovery from the coronavirus recession of 2020, fueled by huge authorities stimulus. The Fed was gradual to acknowledge the severity of the inflation drawback and solely started elevating charges aggressively in March.

The job market has stayed resilient all through, placing upward stress on wages and costs. Employers have added 392,000 jobs a month to date this year, and the unemployment rate is at 3.7%, simply off a half-century low.

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