“I THINK we get to 218.”
Those have been the phrases of 1 senior Republican who understands House elections at a granular stage. Republicans nonetheless imagine they’ll have the bulk within the House. But it may very well be by a razor-thin margin.
“It’s not going to be the majority everyone had hoped,” mentioned one member of the House GOP management brass to Fox News.
“Maybe we’ll get to 230.”
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Republicans will attempt to use that “230” determine as a benchmark. That’s the identical variety of seats Republicans gained in 1994 once they flipped management of the House for the primary time in 40 years.
But it’s removed from clear if the GOP can get wherever near 230 or will as an alternative be mired within the low 220s.
A celebration wants 218 votes to regulate the House.
“We will be in the majority,” mentioned one Republican. “And that’s nothing to mope about.”
Fox News is informed that Republicans are making an attempt to determine what went fallacious when expectations have been so excessive. Was there a problem with polling?
As Fox reported yesterday, within the wave election of 2010, the underside fell out for Democrats within the early fall. The backside by no means dropped out in any respect this time.
Also, in 2020, Republicans gained practically each single toss-up race. This time round, a number of incumbents lost.
“[Former President] Donald Trump is killing them with independents,” confided one well-placed Republican source with ties to Congress and the previous administration.
One Republican source mentioned that Trump on the poll is what will get Republicans to the polls. One source who requested to not be recognized mentioned the occasion goes to wrestle with that downside as they head towards 2024. This is exacerbated by the assumption that the previous president will announce his presidential bid for 2024 subsequent week.
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However, Republicans gained a number of House seats in Florida. All of these seats have been drawn in a solution to be “Trump” seats.
Republicans gained in New York seats that President Biden beforehand carried.
Also, abortion seemed to be an element. The race involving former Interior secretary and former Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont., is not completed but. But an abortion initiative on the poll in Montana could have undercut Zinke’s efforts to return to the House.
Now the issue turns to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and whether or not he can prevail in a speaker’s race.
“The Freedom Caucus is more powerful in a smaller majority,” mentioned one House Republican source. “The knives are out. I hope Kevin can pull it out.”
Fox was informed that issues are “eerily quiet” proper now as rank-and-file Republicans attempt to come to grips with the result and determine what to do about McCarthy or others.
Fox has heard there may very well be an effort to throw NRCC Chairman Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., beneath the bus. Emmer was in control of House GOP re-election efforts. Emmer can be making an attempt to change into the House majority whip, locked in a battle with Reps. Jim Banks, R-Ind., and Drew Ferguson, R-Ga.
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Fox News is informed there was no dialogue about making an attempt to maneuver subsequent Wednesday’s inner House GOP management election.
“It was always going to be hard for Kevin,” mentioned one Republican.
The full House gained’t vote for speaker till the start of the Congress: Jan. 3, 2023.