The storm is projected to make landfall between 1 and 4 a.m. Thursday, with the best probability someplace between West Palm Beach and Melbourne.
“Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or tonight,” the National Hurricane Center wrote Wednesday afternoon.
The surge risk prompted obligatory evacuations in a number of coastal areas, together with Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach County, the place Donald Trump is staying. The former president will not be leaving, an adviser mentioned, though his membership has been closed.
The surge, which may peak at 4 or 5 toes above floor degree, is forecast to extend Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as the core of Nicole comes ashore. It can be most damaging round excessive tide, which is about to happen between 8 and eight:30 p.m. Wednesday alongside Florida’s east coast and once more between 8:30 and 9 a.m. Thursday.
“The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves,” the Hurricane Center cautioned.
While the storm surge might show to be Nicole’s largest hazard, particularly for coastal areas, inland flooding from heavy rain and energy outages from sturdy winds are attainable.
The blow to Florida’s Atlantic shoreline is simply the primary act for the massive and fast-moving storm. After sweeping ashore between West Palm Beach and Melbourne, the storm will shortly head towards Tampa, then will in all probability enter the Gulf of Mexico, make a second landfall on Florida’s Big Bend after which work its approach up the East Coast. A band of heavy rain will fall all the way in which north into Canada.
Water ranges started rising alongside Florida’s east coast Tuesday, and, by Wednesday morning, social media video confirmed the ocean already overwhelming beaches, resulting in coastal erosion and minor to reasonable flooding. Weather radar confirmed the storm’s outer bands transferring onshore, bringing intermittent downpours. Tropical-storm-force winds began alongside the coast round noon.
Martin County, Fla., which incorporates Stuart, reported flooded roads early Wednesday afternoon due to the incoming surge. Social media additionally revealed photographs of flooding round Palm City, Jupiter and Lantana.
At 7 p.m. Eastern, Nicole’s peak winds have been 75 mph after having simply made landfall on Grand Bahama Island an hour earlier (when it was declared a hurricane). Centered 100 miles east of West Palm Beach, Nicole was transferring west at 13 mph.
The storm’s presentation on satellite tv for pc hadn’t modified a lot by way of the course of Wednesday, in response to the Hurricane Center, nevertheless it mentioned some modest extra intensification was attainable earlier than coming ashore in Florida.
More necessary than its depth, nonetheless, is its measurement. Because of its origins as a subtropical system, which implies it possesses a few of the traits of mid-latitude cyclones, it has an unlimited wind discipline. In truth, tropical-storm-force winds exceeding 40 mph lengthen outward as much as 485 miles from the storm’s core.
Through early night, winds had gusted over 40 mph in Vero Beach, Jacksonville, Melbourne and St. Augustine.
On Grand Bahama Island, a gust of 61 mph was clocked at Freeport.
Hurricane warnings spanned from close to Boca Raton to Daytona Beach, together with Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie and the Space Coast. Tropical storm warnings prolonged as far north as Charleston, S.C., and have been additionally expanded to incorporate the Florida Gulf Coast from close to Fort Myers to Tallahassee.
Storm surge warnings for a “life-threatening” rise in ocean water stretched from North Palm Beach northward to southeastern Georgia halfway between Jacksonville and Savannah.
Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued Tuesday for weak zones of Palm Beach and Volusia counties in Florida in anticipation of the surge. St. Lucie, Brevard, St. Johns, Indian River and Martin counties advocated voluntary evacuation for some. Zones of biggest concern embody barrier islands, cell properties and houses in areas vulnerable to flooding.
The National Weather Service wrote that the surge may have “significant impacts,” particularly from Palm Beach northward, with injury to buildings, marinas, docks and piers, as properly as the washing out of roads and main seashore erosion.
Storm surge warnings additionally cover coastal areas from north of Tampa Bay by way of the Big Bend on Florida’s west coast, the place as much as 4 or 5 toes of shoreline inundation is feasible.
Where will Nicole hit hardest? Here’s the outlook for 13 cities.
Ahead of the storm, Orlando International Airport announced that it could stop industrial operations at 4 p.m. Wednesday, and a few of Florida’s largest faculty methods — together with in Miami-Dade County and Orlando — introduced that they have been canceling lessons Wednesday.
The storm is anticipated to ship a bunch of results:
- The total Atlantic coast of Florida north of the storm’s middle can anticipate gusts of 35 to 50 mph, besides Miami-Dade southward, the place winds in all probability can be 25 to 40 mph at most. Near the place the core of Nicole’s circulation strikes ashore, just a few gusts flirting with 75 mph are attainable. These winds may trigger some tree and minor structural injury, as properly as energy outages.
- North of the storm’s middle, onshore winds will push water in opposition to the shoreline and trigger flooding, which can be exacerbated by excessive astronomical tides. This is very true inside the storm surge warning space. Near and north of Palm Beach, a spike of three to five toes in water ranges is anticipated.
- A widespread 2 to five inches of rain with localized 6-inch totals will have an effect on a lot of the Florida Peninsula and the Big Bend. Ordinarily this might be unremarkable for Florida, however many places are nonetheless reeling from flooding left over from Hurricane Ian’s assault on the state in late September. The St. Johns River, already at flood stage, is anticipated to rise additional.
- A number of tornadoes are probably north of the storm’s middle, primarily inside small, low-topped thunderstorm cells that pivot ashore. Tornado danger will enhance Wednesday afternoon from Palm Beach to Jacksonville. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a degree 2 out of 5 “slight risk” of extreme climate.
There additionally could possibly be tropical storm situations between Tampa and Mexico Beach, Fla., on Thursday.
Rainfall on the East Coast
Nicole is heading west due to a blocking dome of excessive stress on the mid-latitudes that has been exerting a southward push on it. By Thursday morning, that prime will shift offshore, permitting Nicole to show northward forward of an approaching low-pressure system over the Midwest.
That low is swinging a chilly entrance east. That entrance will assist focus moisture from Nicole, which can be streaming northward forward of the system.
The end result can be a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain up the Appalachians. It’s unclear if the upper terrain or the cities to the east alongside Interstate 95 will see the jackpot totals; that can be ironed out as soon as Nicole’s path is extra sure. The storm will retain gusty winds as it transitions from a tropical to a mid-latitude storm.
“Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
November is an uncommon month for a hurricane to strike Florida. In truth, solely three hurricanes on report have made landfall in the United States in November, and only one after Nov. 4: Kate, on Nov. 21, 1985. That hurricane struck the Florida Panhandle. Before that, you’d have to return to an unnamed Category 2 hurricane that hit Miami on Nov. 4, 1935. If Nicole maintains its energy till landfall, it would turn into the latest-occurring hurricane on report on the east coast of Florida, tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a tropical climate researcher at Colorado State University.
Regardless of whether or not #Nicole barely strengthens to succeed in Category 1 hurricane depth or maintains 70 mph winds, it would rank as a Top 4 strongest U.S. landfalling storm on report in November or December.
All however one Nov/Dec TC landfalls have been in Florida. pic.twitter.com/q0XhGR5ifL
— Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx) November 9, 2022
Nicole turns into the third hurricane to kind to this point this month in the Atlantic, which means 2022 is now tied with 2001 for many November Atlantic hurricanes on report, in response to Klotzbach. Nicole follows Lisa and Martin, which additionally reached hurricane energy.
Despite Nicole’s uncommon lateness, the 2022 season remains to be operating barely behind common, defying professional predictions of an energetic season. From a standpoint of ACE, or accrued cyclone power, the season up to now is lagging 22 % behind historic averages; ACE is a product of storm depth and length, and quantifies how a lot power from heat ocean waters storms churn by way of.
Tim Craig and Josh Dawsey contributed to this report.